Expected value ( EV ) tells you on average how much money you can make or lose.
Example with dice: You roll a six-number dice. If the number 6 comes up, you get €18, if another number comes up, you lose €3. The question is: Is it profitable for you to play this game ?
Solution:
6 out of 6 will fall once, so the probability is 1/6
Five times out of six another number will come up, so the probability is 5/6
On average, you will earn 1/6 * €18 = €3 and lose 5/6 * €3 = €2.5. So on average you will earn €3 - €2.5 = €0.5.
So, the answer is: EV = €0.5, in other words: every time you roll the dice, you earn €0.5 on average, and it's profitable for us to play this game.
Example in poker:
Let's say you are holding it in your hands:
![Expected value ( EV ) in poker 2 47_treciaake](https://pokeriukas.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/47_treciaake.png)
![Expected value ( EV ) in poker 3 51_dviake](https://pokeriukas.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/51_dviake.png)
500 euros in the pot, flop:
![Expected value ( EV ) in poker 4 3_tuzas](https://pokeriukas.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/3_tuzas.png)
![Expected value ( EV ) in poker 5 15_boy_valet](https://pokeriukas.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/15_berniukas_valetas.png)
![Expected value ( EV ) in poker 6 42_keturake](https://pokeriukas.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/42_keturake.png)
Your opponent bets €200 all-in into a pot of €500. Total in the pot:500 + 200 = 700 euros. And the question: is it profitable for you to call and make a call of 200 euros if you believe he has two boys ?
Solution:
Let's take a look at PokerStars Equilab how likely it is to win:
![Expected value ( EV ) in poker 7 expected value in poker](https://pokeriukas.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/expected-value-pokerio-zaidime-300x185.png)
And we can see that about ~33% will win and ~67% will lose. If we win the pot we win a total of €700, and if we lose, we lose €200. So 33% will win 700 euros and 67% will lose 200 euros. The formula is: 700 * 0.33 - 200 * 0.67 = 97 euros. Answer: EV = 97 euros, in other words: if we play in this situation, making a call, we will earn 97 euros on average.